The current diplomatic and political relations between Bangladesh and India are passing through a sensitive period. In such a geopolitical context, a potential visit to India by Tarique Rahman, Chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is not merely an opportunity for exchanging diplomatic courtesies between the two neighboring countries; rather, it is a vital step toward protecting Bangladesh's energy security, electricity supply, food imports, and overall economic stability.

When the global economy is reeling from Middle East instability, energy transport risks through the Strait of Hormuz, and global supply chain crises, maintaining direct and consolidated communication with India becomes essential in the national interest of Bangladesh.

The Reality of the Electricity and Energy Sector

India's role in Bangladesh's domestic power and energy sector has steadily increased. Electricity arriving from the Godda power plant in Jharkhand, along with other Indian supplies, directly contributes to keeping the national grid active. Although Bangladesh has opportunities to build an India-independent power system using its own coal, gas, and liquid fuels, moving immediately to alternative production would create a burden of massive additional foreign exchange expenditure.

Particularly in the case of diesel imports, the "India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline" is a strategic infrastructure. In the context of Middle East conflicts, maintaining fuel supply from the Numaligarh Refinery through this pipeline is far more cost-effective for Bangladesh's overall transport and agriculture sectors than sourcing expensive fuel from alternative, distant markets.

30-60-90 Days Pressure and Risk Profile If power and energy supplies are disrupted due to diplomatic tensions, it could trigger deep, phased consequences: • First 30 Days: An immediate crisis will arise in power and fuel supplies. Industrial production will be disrupted, load-shedding will increase, and rising transport and irrigation costs will lead to inflation. However, owing to adequate government reserves, the fear of a food crisis will not exist in the initial phase. • 60 Days: Running power plants with expensive liquid fuel imported from alternative sources will severely intensify the dollar crisis. Trade deficits will create a new economic cycle—dollar shortages, rising import costs, and a crash in export earnings driven by reduced production. Power-sensitive sectors like ready-made garments, cement, and textiles will suffer the most. • 90 Days: If supply disruptions persist long-term, the crisis will not remain confined to energy; food security will also fall at risk. Should there be crises in the Black Sea region or the international wheat market, Bangladesh's dependence on India for food imports becomes even more evident.

Economic and Strategic Importance This potential visit to India cannot be viewed simply as a political trip. It serves as a vehicle for Bangladesh to achieve multiple strategic objectives:

• Energy and Power Security: Securing long-term guarantees and a precise pricing structure for Indian electricity and diesel agreements. • Consolidating Food Supply: Utilizing India's geographical proximity for essential commodities like rice, wheat, and onions to maintain an emergency "strategic buffer" or supply assurance. • Commercial Balance: Keeping supply chains functional by reducing invisible administrative costs at land ports and border trade points.

Strategy: Enhance Cooperation, but Reduce Dependence Although the primary objective of a trip to India would be to thaw bilateral ties, it should not aim to increase over-reliance on a single power. In the long run, Bangladesh must diversify its energy sources, increase its own power generation capacity, build strategic reserves, and maintain a balanced "energy diplomacy" with ASEAN, China, and Middle Eastern countries. India is not Bangladesh's sole lifeline, nor is it economically prudent to bypass India given geopolitical realities. Tarique Rahman's potential visit should be viewed as a high-level bargaining opportunity to move past bilateral tensions and establish a stable, institutional, and mutually beneficial framework.

Author: Anwaruzzaman Chowdhury, Politician, Mayor, Sylhet City Corporation.