Recently, the Japanese government has completely rejected as baseless and false a piece of news circulating on social media. The Press Section of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan and Press Secretary Kitamura Toshihiro have explicitly stated that no agreement or administrative commitment has been made by the Japanese government to accept 100,000 workers annually from Bangladesh.

Citing the minutes of the bilateral summit held on October 27, it was clarified that the primary focus of the discussions was to increase private investment and expand economic cooperation between the two countries, rather than setting any specific worker quota. The confusion created by the proposals of private business organizations and the premature publicity of domestic media has been put to rest through Japan's clarification.

Sending Bangladeshi Human Resources to Japan: The Story of Its Inception and Behind the Scenes

Japan generally does not import human resources. However, due to a declining birth rate in Japan, the number of able-bodied working people began to decrease. In this context, the Japanese government planned to grant visas for training to 200,000 able-bodied people every year from underdeveloped countries around the world through the Japan International Trainee & Skilled Worker Cooperation Organization (JITCO).

According to the agreement, these individuals were to receive a three-year visa free of charge, along with round-trip airfare and a fixed allowance for food and accommodation. As per the agreement, upon completing the training and returning to the country, each individual would establish an institution in Bangladesh related to the field in which they received training.

The agencies through which these people would come were strictly prohibited from taking any money or benefits from the individuals. The government of Japan would pay the agency a fixed rate every month for the entire three-year period.

In 2008, the Bangladesh Awami League came to power. At that time, the First Secretary of the Bangladesh Embassy in Japan, due to my personal relationship with him, informed me about this information. I visited Japan twice on personal trips. Through the First Secretary of the Bangladesh Embassy, I held meetings with JITCO. I briefed the then Minister of Expatriates' Welfare, Engineer Khandker Mosharraf Hossain, and Secretary Khurshed Alam Shah about this in detail and requested them to take steps in this regard. With their involvement and interest, a JITCO delegation visited Bangladesh twice. I actively cooperated in all these activities.

On November 28–29, 2010, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh visited Japan on an official tour at the invitation of Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan. I was also a member of the Hon'ble Prime Minister's entourage on that tour.

During this tour, in the official meeting between the Hon'ble Prime Minister and the JITCO delegation, an agreement was signed to bring able-bodied people from Bangladesh to Japan for training. I was also present as an initiator in that official meeting. Later, the Government of Bangladesh granted licenses to 15 agencies in the country to get involved in this activity.

Since then, able-bodied people from Bangladesh began going to Japan officially.

2. Internal Financing and Growing Debt Burden: A Picture of Pressure on the Banking Sector

To meet the extreme deficit in domestic revenue collection, the government has become heavily dependent on short-term and long-term borrowing from the banking sector. In the first three months of the current fiscal year (July–September), the government's net borrowing from the banking sector stood at BDT 24,245 crore.

To pay upcoming government salary scales and cover ongoing deficits, there are plans to borrow an additional BDT 5,000 crore by issuing special Treasury bills (14-day maturity), which has raised concerns among economic analysts. According to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) and former finance secretaries, using short-term Treasury bills to pay regular operating expenses is a manifestation of economic vulnerability and policy crisis.

3. Failure in Revenue Collection and Short-Sighted Investment: Contraction of the Private Sector As the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has failed to achieve targeted revenue goals, the government's budget deficit is increasing continuously. An imbalance has been created in the economy due to, on one hand, weak revenue collection, and on the other hand, the continuous expenditure on priority-less and unplanned projects.

The excessive borrowing by the public sector is having a direct impact on the private sector. Due to a liquidity crisis in commercial banks, the rate of private investment has declined alarmingly. As a direct consequence, stagnation has set in across the country's industrial and manufacturing sectors, and unemployment is rising.

4. Long-Term Debt Risk and Fear of Institutional Bankruptcy

If this trend of unplanned borrowing continues against the backdrop of the country's overall debt-repayment capacity, the total size of government debt may reach approximately BDT 34 lakh crore by the 2028–29 fiscal year.

Economists have warned that this trend of running the state relying solely on loans without increasing revenue could push Bangladesh toward extreme bankruptcy and sovereign economic risks in the long run.

Author: Dr. Awlad Hossain, Politician and Political Analyst