Despite strict administrative crackdowns, the Awami League and its associated wings have announced plans to take to the streets centered around the return of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to the country. Following a long period of concealment or inactivity, sudden incidents of processions, public address (mic) campaigns, and attacks on police by party activists across various parts of the country have sparked renewed anxiety within the government and law enforcement agencies.

Field Reality: Sudden Activism and Police Challenges

• Clashes and Attacks: In Sadar Upazila of Gopalganj, Chhatra League and Jubo League processions led to physical assaults on police personnel and vandalism of vehicles, resulting in injuries to law enforcement members and damage to vehicles. • Innovative Campaigns: In places like Manda in Naogaon, as well as various other parts of the country (such as Banshkhali, Bamna, Ishwarganj, Comilla, and Sreepur), audio campaigns using microphones on auto-rickshaws and poster-banner displays announcing Sheikh Hasina's potential December return were carried out right in front of police stations and in crowded public areas.

• Intelligence and Administrative Concerns: Despite extensive mass arrests and widespread reshuffling within the police administration from top to field levels, activists cannot be suppressed. According to intelligence officials, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the police to curb this growing activity outside Dhaka and at the grassroots level.

The 'Do or Die' Policy and Advance Team Plan

• Organizational Restructuring: Multiple sources within the party have confirmed that the formation of organizational committees at the district, upazila, and grassroots levels has already been completed. • All-Out Programs from November: With the green light from the party high command, there are plans to introduce new surprises in the programs starting next month. • Formation of an Advance Team: To revitalize the movement and bring the field situation in favor before Sheikh Hasina's return, about 20 to 30 leaders (including several former members of parliament) are scheduled to return to the country in the early part of next month. Prior to this, the party chairperson will hold meetings with senior leaders to finalize a specific roadmap.

'Blame Game' in the Political Arena and Behind-the-Scenes Equations

• Mutual Recriminations between BNP and Jamaat-NCB: Citing intelligence information, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman alleged that the Awami League is being utilized to create instability. On the other hand, Jamaat and NCB claim that the BNP's somewhat soft policies are providing the Awami League with an opportunity to bounce back. • Common Ground: Amidst visible political rivalry and counter-allegations, roundtable discussions among various political analysts and intellectuals have revealed that on the question of preventing the revival or return of the Awami League, the core strategic positions of the major political parties essentially converge at a single point.

Future Apprehensions

Sheikh Hasina's potential return and the sudden 'Do or Die' programs by her activists have created a major security challenge for the government. With reluctance at the field level of the police, fears of deteriorating law and order, and this game of mutual blame among political parties, the political arena is feared to become even more volatile in the days ahead.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla