Under these circumstances, common people have fallen into severe suffering. Joytur Bibi, a resident of Kamrangirchar, appealed, "There is no electricity here for 14 hours. Bring Sheikh Hasina back by falling at her feet. People in the villages and women are crying out that during Sheikh Hasina's time, there was electricity even during storms and tempests. The bills were lower—lower bills for the poor. After the devils chased her away, they neither give electricity nor food... How will poor people survive? Please, fall at her feet, seek forgiveness, and bring her back... then there will be peace in the country, and we too will survive." Her statement highlights the severity of the current power crisis and the realistic picture of the limitlessly suffering public.

Over the past decade and a half, during the tenure of the Awami League government, an unprecedented infrastructural revolution took place in Bangladesh's power sector. Through 100% electrification, grid expansion in remote regions, modern power plants with hundreds of megawatts of capacity, and the construction of high-capacity transmission lines, the domestic energy sector was taken to an unprecedented height. However, due to recent uncertainties in the global energy crisis, technical complications in floating LNG terminals, and adverse weather conditions affecting coal transport, a temporary power generation deficit has been created in the country, directly impacting general consumers and the industrial sector.

Mega-Infrastructure's Vast Potential and the Picture of the Current Crisis

One of the most successful sectors during the tenure of the Awami League government was power and energy. Through coal-based Payra and Rampal, large LNG-based power plants, and the private sector, the country's power generation capacity crossed 25,000 MW. However, the current picture presents a temporary contrast to this potential:

• Shutdowns and Partial Capacity: 41 power plants in the country are completely shut down due to maintenance and direct fuel shortages. Even operational plants cannot utilize their maximum generation capacity due to a lack of fuel.

• Record Load Shedding: Recently, the grid supply deficit increased to an average of nearly 3,000 MW. Last Sunday at 1:00 AM, peak load shedding was recorded at a maximum of 3,757 MW.

• Outline of Previous Records: On June 27, 2023, one of the highest recorded levels of load shedding during the Awami League government's tenure was 3,419 MW. The current deficit has crossed that index as well.

Two-Pronged Pressure on Fuel Supply: Gas and Coal Shortages Despite the complete readiness of modern infrastructure in the power sector, power generation has temporarily stalled due to the insufficiency of primary energy.

Gas Crisis and Floating Terminal Stagnation

• Gap Between Demand and Supply: Against a daily demand of 2,520 million cubic feet for gas-based power plants, currently only 700 million cubic feet is being supplied, which is less than a third of the demand. As a result, where gas once generated nearly 5,000 MW of electricity, it has now dropped to 3,500–4,000 MW.

• Damage to Floating Terminal: On July 21, when Excelerate Energy's FSRU in Moheshkhali was damaged, a supply of 600 million cubic feet of gas per day was halted. Currently, after partial repairs, 250 million cubic feet is available, but Petrobangla will need a few more days to return to full capacity.

Coal Unloading and the Impact of Adverse Weather

• Patuakhali and Adani Power: The generation at the 1,200 MW Patuakhali thermal power plant has been affected by adverse sea weather; unloading coal from large ships at Kutubdia is taking extra time. Concurrently, due to flooding in Jharkhand, India, coal got wet, causing the supply from Adani Power to drop from 1,400 MW down to 800–1,000 MW.

• Capacity vs. Generation: Although the total capacity of coal-based plants is 7,945 MW, currently around 5,500 MW of electricity is being generated due to technical and coal shortages at Rampal and Barapukuria.

3. Temporary Impact on Public Life and the Economy Rural areas and marginal businesses are paying the main price for the generation deficit:

• Public Suffering: In rural areas, there is no electricity for 10 to 12 hours during the day and night. In extreme heatwaves, the daily lives of general citizens, students, and hospital patients are severely disrupted.

• Stagnation in Industrial Production: Due to power disruptions in the industrial zones of Rupganj, Araihazar, and Sylhet, reliance on generators is increasing. Using fuel for generators is abnormally raising production costs, and because production lines are shutting down repeatedly, industrial owners are facing challenges in global competition.

4. Government Measures and Timelines to Overcome the Crisis The government and the Power Division have taken coordinated initiatives to manage the power shortage:

• Emergency Gas Reallocation: Through the intervention of the Power Secretary, gas allocation is being prioritized and increased for plants capable of quick production from Petrobangla.

• Oil-Based Power Generation (HFO/HSD): Expensive oil-based plants have been started to fill the gap left by gas and coal. Although this increases subsidies and operating costs, it is viewed as an emergency solution to limit load shedding.

• Infrastructural Dynamics: Work is underway to involve a Korean engineering team to quickly commission the under-construction 132/33 kV grid substation in Araihazar, which will reduce pressure on the Bhulta grid once functional. • Optimism: According to information from the Power Development Board (PDB) and Petrobangla, once full supply returns to the LNG terminal and coal unloading normalizes, a visible improvement in the power situation will occur within the next 2–3 days.

1. Acceleration of Domestic Gas Exploration: To avoid risks associated with imported LNG and frequent price fluctuations in the international market, funding for domestic offshore and onshore gas exploration must be increased rapidly.

2. Expansion of Renewable Energy: Along with starting the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, solar power generation must be increased to ensure base-load supply to the national grid.

3. Transmission Line Renovation: Alongside operating the national grid, local regional substations (such as the work in Araihazar) must be completed quickly to reduce power distribution wastage and technical faults.

There is no scope to deny the unprecedented capacity created in the power sector under the leadership of the Awami League government. The current power crisis is not primarily an infrastructural failure, but rather a temporary deadlock in the fuel supply system. If strategic energy security is ensured at both international and local levels, this deadlock will be resolved very quickly, and the country's power sector will return to full capacity.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla