Ever since the political transition in the government of Bangladesh, fresh calculations have begun across the nation's political and military circles. Strong rumors are circulating among various political and administrative sources that the time of Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, appointed by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is running out fast. Particularly, the growing distance between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and the Army Chief, alongside initiatives to completely purge the current administration of Sheikh Hasina's influence, has further intensified these speculations.

From the Removal of the President to Pressure on the Army Chief

Analysts see deep political motives behind the dramatic events surrounding the resignation and departure of President Mohammed Shahabuddin Chuppu. While Army Chief Waker-uz-Zaman was away on a visit to Turkey, the process of the President's resignation was abruptly completed. Even the swift return of the Speaker from Bangkok to have this resignation letter accepted proves that the current government is moving forward with unilateral and stern steps, leaving no room for bargaining or compromise with the Army Chief.

The inner circle of Tarique Rahman believes that merely changing the President is not enough to restore comfort across all levels of the administration. This is because the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) believes that Waker-uz-Zaman played a direct and indirect role in the formation of the interim government following August 5, 2024, providing political space to Jamaat-e-Islami, and fostering the rise of a new political force centered around student leaders.

Political Equations and Discontent Over the Rise of Jamaat and Student Leaders

According to BNP's top leadership, although the party was supposed to come to power independently after August 5, that path was obstructed by various actions of the Army Chief. Waker-uz-Zaman had arranged to keep an unpolitical force in power for an extended period through the interim government formed by Jamaat-e-Islami and the coordinators of the student movement.

Tarique Rahman and top leaders of his party believe that it was due to this political maneuvering by the Army Chief that Jamaat and the new civic platforms managed to establish such a strong footing. On the other hand, the Army Chief's excessive flexibility and preferential treatment toward certain political parties and student leaders, without maintaining proper communication with the BNP and its senior leaders, had kept the BNP leadership suspicious from the very beginning.

Appointment of Defense Advisor and a New Channel with India

To establish full control over the military and administration, Tarique Rahman has already taken strong steps. Replacing long-trusted and close confidant of Khaleda Zia, retired Major General Fazle Rabbi Akbar, he has appointed trusted retired Brigadier General Shamsul Islam as his defense advisor.

Analysts consider the recent visit of Brigadier General Shamsul Islam to India and his meeting with India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to be highly significant. At a time when effective diplomatic or military communication channels with Waker-uz-Zaman have grown weak, the defense advisor's visit hints at new political and international equations.

Waker-uz-Zaman's Final Days and Discontent Within the Army

According to analysts, Tarique Rahman and Dr. Zubaida Rahman—who endured persecution by military officers following the 1/11 political changeover in 2007—have not easily forgotten the political role of the current Army Chief. Furthermore, a disgruntled faction within the military and a section of retrospectively promoted officers are also vocal against Waker-uz-Zaman.

All things considered, with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman taking an uncompromising stance to remove Army Chief Waker-uz-Zaman and bring the administration and military fully under their own control, is Waker-uz-Zaman running out of time now just a matter of days?

Is there anything left to do other than listening once again to the late legendary rock star Ayub Bachchu's classic song — "Aaro ektu kandale ural debo akashe..." (Will a little more shedding of tears send me flying into the sky...)?

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla