The sky of Bangladeshi politics is changing colors by the moment, much like monsoon clouds. Amidst political maneuvers, the unimaginable silence of the mainstream media, and the maze of confusion spread across social media, ordinary citizens and the youth are losing their sense of direction. Overall, indications point toward a major unusual event in the near future.

The inception of coming to power through the backdoor in Bangladesh was initiated by BNP's Ziaur Rahman. It is claimed that in dealing with 19 military coups, big and small, he hanged 1,143 army officers in just two months up to October 9, 1977. Including the seven coup attempts during Ershad's era, a total of 29 military coups have reportedly occurred in the Bangladesh Army so far, out of which only four were successful, while the rest failed.

Allegations suggest that Jamaat, the NCP, the AB Party, anti-independence elements hiding within the BNP, and certain pro-Pakistani intellectuals have been behaving aggressively since August 5, 2024. Sometimes they have ridden on the shoulders of the army to kill police and Ansar members, while at other times they are accused of talking about capturing cantonments. There are also serious allegations that NCP's Nasiruddin Patwary threatened to demolish the DGFI headquarters.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus himself admitted that they seized power in a planned manner. There are grave allegations that during his tenure, the army remained silent while millions of homes across the country were looted and people were killed. Although NCP youth leaders threatened attacks on the cantonment, the army played the role of a silent spectator. Even after Nasiruddin Patwary threatened to demolish the DGFI office, no courage was shown to arrest him and bring him under the law. The faction of the army that lifted Nahid and others on their shoulders to celebrate, and supported the destruction of murals of the Liberation War and independence—today, those very "Chanda Bhai"-s are repeatedly striking at the dignity of the army.

No one can guarantee that if Sheikh Hasina returns to the country this December, events like the assassinations of Benazir Bhutto or Kazi Arif Ahmed will not be repeated. Nor is there any guarantee that a Mir Jafar hiding within the Awami League will not carry out an attack with modern weapons like a sniper rifle in exchange for a hefty sum. There is an apprehension that the Yunus-leaning factions, under a new plan, are silently moving toward removing Tarique Rahman's current government to form a "revolutionary government," turning Bangladesh into East Pakistan or "Banglastan."

Questions may arise: what are the signs? It is alleged that during the Long March, weapons were brought into Chattogram from Pakistan under false declarations as sports equipment. According to intelligence sources, this has built up a stockpile of more than 30,000 weapons in their hands. Furthermore, there are serious allegations that training of neo-militants is underway at more than 24 launch pads across the country.

It is alleged that Jamaat-Shibir leaders "wearing lungis" within the BNP are now quite active and awaiting final orders. They are mainly divided into two parts. One faction holds various important posts in the main BNP party and its affiliated organizations. It is even alleged that more than a dozen MPs are "Jamaat-Shibir leaders hiding under lungis." Do the reckless behaviors of the BNP and its affiliated organizations in Dhaka city not indicate anything? Does no one know why the Dhaka Metropolitan North committee was dissolved? Ignoring the directives of party Chairperson Tarique Rahman, numerous incidents of occupying the Rodda clinic in Mirpur and extortion in Banglamotor are taking place, yet these news stories are not being allowed to appear in the controlled media. Do the behaviors of Major Akhter at the airport and the daughter of a female MP from Sylhet (a former Chhatra Sangha leader) not carry any implication? On October 4, 2026, during a visit to Lalon Shah's shrine in Kushtia, NCP leader Nasiruddin Patwary was harassed and his motorcade was attacked. Chhatra Dal's name has come up in this. Which faction's Chhatra Dal are they? Reports of many such incidents and weapon brandishing in various neighborhoods and universities are appearing in the media. Does it not seem that their roots are planted elsewhere?

On the other hand, it is alleged that thousands of new Jamaat-Shibir sleeper cell operatives have infiltrated the civil and police administrations. Word is circulating that expelled Brigadier Azmi has received a new promotion and is reaping various unethical benefits with the assistance of the current Army Chief. It is learned that complaints regarding this were also raised during the army darbar on the 1st. Dr. Sheikh Abdur Rashid, who was a Shibir member during his student life, assumed the post of Cabinet Secretary on October 14, 2024, and held that position until February 14, 2026. During this time, besides new police recruitment, contract-based appointments and transfers were made in important departments. It is alleged that with the patronage of Dr. Rashid, many Shibir activists who were excluded from BCS through police verification since 2009 have been recruited disguised as Chhatra Dal, complete with seniority and arrears of pay and allowances. According to sources, they have been told that their time to repay the debt is before this coming December.

In short, there is no doubt that anti-independence forces will take to the field with all their might centering on December, because the July-August 2024 movement serves as a burning inspiration for them. On the other hand, pro-independence forces will keep looking toward the Awami League. It is rumored that out of fear that JSD might do something, hints have been given to stop them through mob attacks and mass arrests. The opportunistic leaders of the Awami League are busy living a comfortable life abroad in anticipation of foreign assistance. Only the persecuted, self-sacrificing activists who have suffered imprisonment and oppression remain in the field empty-handed without swords or shields, whereas, according to allegations, the opposing side possesses modern firearms in the hands of Jamaati militants.

Are the statements made in various seminars held in Bangladesh by bringing in domestic and foreign experts, and the activities of the Jamaat-NCP sleeper cells hidden within the BNP and its affiliates, happening for nothing? Do these not indicate the groundwork for another militant coup to overthrow the government before December?

Author: Niharika Roy, Development Worker, Political Analyst, and Columnist