A sensational rumor has recently spread across Bangladesh's political and military circles. Just two years after the fall of Sheikh Hasina and seven months into the new government led by Tarique Rahman, has a friction begun between the two crucial pillars of the state—the government and the military?

1. The Regime Change of August 5 and the Firm Role of the Army Chief

Following the fall of the Awami League government in the student-led mass uprising on August 5, 2024, Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman took charge during a critical juncture for the nation. The Army Chief played a commendable role behind the scenes in sustaining the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus through strategic and tactical means. However, his "no-nonsense" stance on sensitive national security issues—such as the Myanmar border or transit initiatives—clearly signaled that the military would not compromise on the country's sovereignty.

2. The Genesis of a Cold War Between the Government and the Military

Seven months into the Tarique Rahman-led administration, claims have emerged regarding an uncomfortable shift in the balance of power between the current administration and the military. An incident on September 8 is being viewed as the immediate catalyst. Four critical transfer and promotion letters were issued via written orders from the Armed Forces Division and an office under the control of the Defense Advisor, sparking rumors of a calculated move to curb the Army Chief's authority. Although Prime Minister Tarique Rahman personally assured that the government would proceed peacefully through its full term until June 2027, the crisis of trust within military circles has not been fully resolved.

3. The Army Chief’s Foreign Visits and the GO Complications

The complexity of the situation became further evident surrounding the Army Chief’s visit to Australia and the United States on October 3. His departure from Dhaka without an official Government Order (GO) was unprecedented. Later, after he had already left the country, government policymakers recognized the lapse and completed the legal formalities, pointing to a lack of internal coordination at the top level.

4. Tough Questions by Mid-Level Officers at the Senadarbar

At an army durbar (Senadarbar) held on October 1 for mid-level army officers holding the ranks of Colonel and Lieutenant Colonel, the top leadership faced a series of embarrassing questions. The primary concerns raised by the officers included:

• The prolonged custody or detention of accused military personnel involved in political events prior to August 5. • The extended deployment of the military on the streets for routine law enforcement under the guise of aiding the civil administration. • The actual effectiveness and success of past security operations.

5. Polarization and Isolation of Senior Military Officers

There are allegations that several senior and retired military officers who were close confidants of Begum Khaleda Zia in the past and played significant roles in the political settlement of August 5 (such as Major General Fazle Elahi Akbar) are being ignored and sidelined by the current government's policy-making sphere. As a result, these experienced officials and senior veterans are shifting their focus away from the current government and aligning strongly behind Army Chief General Waker.

6. Internal Power Struggles Within BNP: The 'Old Guard' vs. the 'London Club'

Power struggles within the BNP have also come to the fore. A deep division has emerged in the party, with Begum Khaleda Zia’s loyalists—the old political guardians or the "Old Guard"—on one side, and Tarique Rahman's close associates who arrived from London on the other, as the latter have taken control of key ministries. Rumors in political circles suggest that the devaluation of senior and battle-tested leaders, alongside the dominance of newcomers in policy-making, could trigger a major internal political crisis in the future.

7. Controversial Deal with an American Firm and Economic Debates

Alongside internal power struggles, a strategic and economic controversy has surfaced. Process is underway to hand over full operational control of biometric data, cargo, and immigration screening at Bangladesh's primary international airport and land borders to "Securiport," a Virginia-based American multinational company. Allegations suggest that the agreement is being rushed under the influence of a powerful cabinet minister, sparking intense dissatisfaction within the BNP and a large segment of the armed forces.

Conclusion

The current politico-military situation is not merely an internal crisis; it is a complex web of power dynamics, control, and geopolitics. If this rift in trust between Tarique Rahman’s new political arrangement and the powerful military led by General Waker is not resolved swiftly, it could push the country's democratic journey into uncertainty. Without a clear and transparent explanation from the Army Chief or ISPR, public confusion continues to deepen. How this situation unfolds in the coming days remains to be seen.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla