Since the political transformation on August 5, the most discussed topic in Bangladesh's political arena has been the future of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the rumors surrounding her return to the country. Recently, these rumors have taken a new turn. Keeping in mind various equations of global politics and diplomacy, this analysis examines Sheikh Hasina’s potential repatriation, the legal intricacies of the India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty, and the diplomatic and internal political tension emerging in Dhaka under the current circumstances.

1. Travel Pass Application and New Diplomatic Speculations

According to multiple diplomatic sources, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina may apply for a passport or a travel pass at the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi later this month. As part of the preliminary process, her new audio interview is scheduled to be broadcast across two international and several Indian media outlets, which may deliver a more definitive message regarding her return.

However, the question remains: if she applies for a travel pass, it will pose a major administrative and political challenge for the Bangladesh government. Her diplomatic passport was revoked during the tenure of the previous interim government and the present administration. Consequently, the lack of valid travel documents stands as the primary administrative barrier to her return. Diplomatic sources suggest that behind-the-scenes discussions are ongoing among representatives and diplomats from India, Bangladesh, and two Western nations.

In particular, the departure of top diplomats representing three countries (associated with the diplomatic networks of the UK, India, and Turkey) from Dhaka over a three-day period has sparked fresh discourse in diplomatic circles.

2. India-Bangladesh Extradition Treaty: Legal Intricacies and India's Stance

The Bangladesh government has already sent multiple diplomatic notes (Note Verbale) requesting Sheikh Hasina's extradition. Although this demand is made under the 2013 Bangladesh-India Extradition Treaty (amended in 2016), New Delhi continues to maintain a cautious delay regarding the legal and procedural aspects.

• Dual Criminality: According to the treaty, the offense for which extradition is requested must be recognized as a crime under the laws of both countries and must carry a minimum sentence of one year's imprisonment. • Political Exception and Interests of Justice: Legal experts point out that under Article 8 of the treaty, if the requested state believes that the accusation was not made in good faith or in the interest of justice, the request can be rejected. Furthermore, Article 6(1) provides grounds to deny extradition if the offense is deemed to be of a political nature. • Human Rights and International Standards: India is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). Under Article 14 of the ICCPR, if a fair trial and the right to self-defense are not guaranteed, or if the accused faces the risk of torture or the death penalty, India, as a sovereign nation, can exercise international provisions and its authority regarding political asylum to refuse extradition.

Diplomatic sources in Delhi indicate that while India's Ministry of External Affairs claims to be conducting a preliminary legal review, the file is most likely to be stalled at the executive level by invoking Section 29 of the Indian Extradition Act of 1962. Unofficially, the Indian government has reportedly indicated that rather than extradition, it views Sheikh Hasina's return on her own initiative or through alternative means through a different lens.

3. Government Crackdown and Internal Political Instability

Tensions in domestic politics have been steadily rising since the former prime minister announced her intention to return to the country around December. The present government and administration have taken a strict stance to prevent potential organizational activities and the resurgence of the Awami League.

As part of these measures, the Detective Branch (DB) of police recently arrested two former army officers—retired Lieutenant Kazi Gulshan Ara and retired Lieutenant Colonel Debashish—on charges of maintaining contact with the party, funding anti-state activities, and carrying out provocative propaganda. They were subsequently presented in court under the Anti-Terrorism Act, where the court granted a four-day remand. Analysts fear that as the December deadline approaches, the political and administrative confrontation between the government and the ousted party could intensify further.

4. Future Outlook and Conclusion

If Sheikh Hasina bypasses the extradition process and attempts to return home voluntarily using a travel pass or other means, it will not only cause significant upheaval in domestic politics but also create new equations in international relations. Caught between the complications of travel documentation and the imperatives of legal and political compromises, it remains to be seen which direction Bangladeshi politics will take in the days ahead.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla