Episode 2:

On paper, Bangladesh’s current power generation capacity is nearly 29,000 MW. Yet, over the past few weeks, against a demand of 16,000 MW, actual generation has dropped to just 12,000 to 12,500 MW. Despite having the capacity, more than half of the country’s power plants are either shut down or lying idle due to a shortage of fuel. Nationwide, the country is having to manage severe load-shedding exceeding 2,000 to 3,500 MW daily. Analyzing the root causes behind this sudden major disaster and deep energy crisis in a country that achieved 100% electrification reveals: 1. Severe Gas Shortage and LNG Import Shock: Gas-based power plants in the country have a total capacity of nearly 12,000 MW. However, due to gas shortages, it is only possible to generate just over 5,000 MW. Around 7,000 MW of gas-fired plant capacity has to be kept completely shut down. The Russia-Ukraine war and the dollar crisis have made it virtually impossible for the Power Development Board (PDB) to purchase LNG at high prices from the international spot market. 2. Outstanding Bills and Oil Shortage: Unpaid bills for coal and furnace oil-fired power plants have accumulated into billions of taka. Due to the inability to clear dues owed to foreign coal suppliers and domestic Independent Power Producers (IPPs), imports of coal and furnace oil are being disrupted. Even supplies from Adani Power and other Indian routes have decreased. 3. 'Capacity Charges' and Policy Mistakes: Even when electricity is not generated, huge sums of money have had to be paid to private power plants as 'capacity charges' or plant rentals according to contracts. As a result, the power sector faces a cash crunch for purchasing fuel, while billions of taka continue to be spent on idle plants. 4. Rural-Urban Disparity: The country's rural population is paying a heavy price for this national grid shortfall. While capital city Dhaka faces 1 to 2 hours of daily load-shedding, districts outside Dhaka and rural electricity areas are enduring power outages lasting 8 to 12 hours daily. Production in the garment industry and small-to-large factories has plummeted by half under the strain of electricity and gas shortages. (To be continued... Final episode tomorrow) Author: Anwaruzzaman Chowdhury, Politician & Mayor, Sylhet City Corporation.