The Bay of Bengal, nestled along the shores of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, is no longer just a expanse of blue waters; rather, it has become a new chessboard for global superpowers. Due to recent geopolitical and economic decisions, the geopolitics of this region has assumed a highly complex form. According to analysts, these recent moves are turning the Bay of Bengal into a new 'theater of conflict.'

1. Permanent Influence of China and India on the Myanmar Coast

For a long time, the Chinese-funded 'Kyaukpyu' deep-sea port has been operational on the Rakhine coast of Myanmar. Furthermore, there is intense discussion in international political circles that China maintains a secret surveillance base on Myanmar's Coco Islands. On the other hand, to counter Chinese influence in this region, India is implementing the 'Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project' and a seaport project in Myanmar's Rakhine State. Additionally, India maintains strong naval bases stretching from Visakhapatnam on its own eastern coast to Port Blair in the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal.

2. Dawei Port: Russia's Strong Presence at the Doorstep of the Bay of Bengal After the two superpowers, China and India, Putin's Russia is now establishing a strong presence of its own in the Bay of Bengal. Russian military and economic power is directly joining the 'Dawei' deep-sea port project on the Andaman Sea coast of southern Myanmar.

• Strategic Location: Although the city of Dawei is located on the coast of the Andaman Sea on geographical maps, according to the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) and military strategists, the Andaman Sea is a direct extension of the Bay of Bengal. Any warship or submarine exiting from here can enter the main waters of the Bay of Bengal without hindrance. • Moscow-Naypyidaw Agreement: Following the signing of a memorandum on investment cooperation in February last year, a meeting took place between Putin and the head of the Myanmar junta during his visit to Moscow in August this year. In that meeting, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin confirmed that Russian companies are interested in working in the Dawei Special Economic Zone. • Logistics and Military Hub: According to Singapore-based researchers, Russian submarines and warships moving from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will receive regular refueling, repair, and logistical facilities through this port. Although not officially declared a 'military base,' this will serve as the primary infrastructure for expanding Russia's permanent influence in the Indian Ocean region.

The Cornered US "Orange Line" and Extreme Security Risks

For over 50 years, the United States has been attempting to project military dominance in this region. To contain Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal, America has so far relied on its 'Diego Garcia' military base, located 3,500 kilometers away. In the terminology of American strategists, this is referred to as the 'Orange Line.' Through satellite-linked Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) and signals intelligence, this network ensured US monitoring from the seabed to the airspace of the Bay of Bengal.

However, Russia's presence in Myanmar's Dawei and China's surveillance system on the Coco Islands have posed a severe challenge to this US network. This three-way axis of China, Russia, and India is creating a major blockade to the surveillance of the US base.

India's 'Red Axis' and Absolute Control over the Bay of Bengal

In terms of geographical location and defense infrastructure, India holds the most advantageous position in the Bay of Bengal region.

• Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier: The Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC) is India's only tri-service military command, situated just 150 kilometers from the entrance of the Malacca Strait and the 'Six Degree Channel,' a primary global trade route. • INS Varsha: Located at Rambilli near Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, this is an Indian nuclear submarine base and a top-secret military stronghold. • Shield of Security: The line connecting India's Visakhapatnam and Port Blair forms India's defense shield or 'Red Axis.' Despite possessing world-class technology, it is nearly impossible for US or Russian forces operating from a distance to establish permanent infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal that matches India's presence.

Regional Security and Bangladesh's Strategic Position

Due to America's precarious position, Washington has few alternatives other than India to counterbalance China and Russia. According to analysts, the geographical importance of the coastal stretch from Teknaf to St. Martin's Island is also coming to the negotiating table as an alternative option.

Russia's presence through Dawei Port, China's through Kyaukpyu and the Coco Islands, and India's strong positioning through Andaman-Visakhapatnam have transformed the Bay of Bengal into a hub of multi-dimensional military rivalry. If direct tension or conflict arises among these superpowers at any point, it will have a direct impact on the security of the mainlands of Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar situated in the middle.

Whether this crucial waterway of the Bay of Bengal will remain under whose control in the future depends not merely on military power, but on a delicate diplomatic balance. In the end, the power that holds control over the Bay of Bengal will dictate the geopolitical and economic future of the entire Indo-Pacific region.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla