A new chapter has unfolded in Dhaka-New Delhi relations within the post-election political and geopolitical context of Bangladesh following the February 12, 2026, elections. Moving away from the traditional anti-India stance of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) from the era of Ziaur Rahman or Begum Khaleda Zia, Tarique Rahman's strategic silence during the election campaign was viewed positively by New Delhi. Consequently, immediately after the victory, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first foreign head of government to extend congratulations, invite him on a state visit, and initiate steps to resume suspended visas—signaling an effort to rebuild mutual trust. However, beneath this positivity, a fundamental question remains visible in the minds of Indian policymakers: Was Tarique Rahman's conduct merely a temporary election tactic, or does it represent a permanent qualitative shift in the BNP's foreign policy?

'Litmus Check' in Indian Policy and the Legacy of the Yunus Era To resolve this suspicion and gauge the true trajectory of the Tarique Rahman government's foreign policy, New Delhi has adopted a special "Litmus Check" strategy. New Delhi believes that several decisions and international agreements undertaken during the 18-month tenure of the Yunus-led interim government were harmful to India's interests. India's primary assessment is that the Yunus government strategically moved Bangladesh away from India's sphere of influence through tactical agreements with various regional and global powers. As a result, the future sustainability of bilateral relations depends on the stance the BNP government takes regarding all these controversial initiatives and agreements.

The Six Major Issues of Deep Concern for New Delhi

• China-Bangladesh Defense Cooperation & Chittagong Drone Center: Signed just two weeks before the election, the agreement between the Bangladesh Air Force and China's 'CETC' to set up a drone factory is India's biggest concern. The plan to build a military drone production hub in the Chittagong Exclusive Economic Zone—just 100 kilometers from the Indian border—poses a direct security threat to India. New Delhi wants the BNP government to reconsider the decision on this Chinese military drone project.

• Favorable Winds in Pakistan-Bangladesh Relations: During the Yunus administration, direct flights, trade restoration, and high-level military dialogues with Pakistan were resumed after 14 years. New Delhi demands specific assurances that Dhaka will not engage in deep military diplomacy with Islamabad under any circumstances.

• Teesta River Management: The Yunus government had sought Chinese assistance for a 50-year master plan for the river. India's explicit demand is that discussions regarding the Teesta River agreement must remain strictly within the bilateral framework between India and Bangladesh.

• Political Rise of Jamaat-e-Islami in Border Regions: In the 2026 elections, Jamaat won 68 seats, with nearly 70 percent of those seats coming from the Khulna, Rangpur, and Rajshahi divisions bordering India's West Bengal and Assam. India views this political transformation along the border as a major infrastructural security concern.

• India's Transit Demands: India seeks overland transit access through Bangladeshi territory to connect with Nepal and Bhutan, as well as permission to make direct development investments in Bangladesh's eastern border districts.

• Siliguri Corridor ('Chicken's Neck') & Geostrategic Security: To safeguard this narrow 22-kilometer-wide corridor, India explicitly demands that Bangladesh must not allow any hostile military presence or infrastructure development in its northern region that could jeopardize India's territorial integrity.

The Equation for the Days Ahead

How the Tarique-led BNP government balances these sensitive Indian demands and concerns remains to be seen, likely until his official visit to India. In this game of foreign policy, two clear paths lie ahead for the BNP:

"If the BNP government creates an environment that is hostile or unpredictable for India's security, it may find itself cornered in the international arena within the next 2 to 4 months. Conversely, if it prioritizes India's concerns and maintains a favorable atmosphere, we might witness a modernized version of the relationship seen over the past sixteen years in regional politics."

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Chief Editor, The Source News Bangla