The overthrow or collapse of an elected or sitting government in any country is no longer a sudden or accidental event. Geopolitical analysis reveals that it is a structured and tactical methodology executed step-by-step. Over the last four years, the successful application of this formula has been observed at least four times in India’s neighborhood and across the global stage.

Below is a detailed analysis of the six core steps of this "Regime Change Manual" alongside its global and geopolitical context.

1. The 6 Core Steps of Government Collapse Step 1: Seizing Upon Public Discontent or a Specific Issue Every movement originates by centering around genuine or temporary public dissatisfaction. • Sri Lanka: Food and fuel shortages. • Bangladesh: The public job quota reform movement. • Nepal: Social media or TikTok bans.

Step 2: Covert Networks and Algorithm Manipulation To spread the movement, NGOs, independent pages, Instagram content creators, and pre-prepped student leaders are mobilized. The algorithms of social media platforms are manipulated to create an environment that makes the movement appear 100% spontaneous.

What Dr. Yunus Said

It is worth noting that after the fall of the government in Bangladesh, Dr. Yunus introduced students on Clinton’s stage in the United States, stating that the movement was extremely well-designed and people did not know its core orchestrators—ensuring no single person could be targeted to halt the movement. Step 3: Eroding Public Trust in State Institutions

The public is conditioned to believe that the electoral system is rigged and the judiciary has been bought off. Even a defeat in elections is presented as "proof" of systemic fraud.

Step 4: Trapping the Government in a Catch-22

Students, children, and women are pushed to the frontlines of the protests. If anyone is injured or killed in clashes, they are portrayed as "victims" or "martyrs" to escalate public outrage to a boiling point (e.g., parliament was set on fire in Nepal the day after 19 people were killed).

Step 5: Fracture Within Institutional Structures

Rendition of law enforcement agencies, bureaucracy, and most importantly, the military inactive. According to a Reuters report, on the night before Sheikh Hasina left the country in Dhaka, the army chief made it clear that his troops would not open fire on civilians, leading to the then-prime minister fleeing the country.

Step 6: Regime Change or Takeover of Power In the final step, the desired new regime or a military-backed interim structure is installed, operating in alignment with specific geopolitical interests.

2. Geopolitical Impact and Historical Background There is extensive debate over whether major international superpowers play a covert role behind such regime changes.

• Donald Lu and the Pakistan Chronology: On March 7, 2022, US diplomat Donald Lu met with Pakistan’s ambassador. According to a leaked diplomatic cable, Lu hinted that if the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan passed, all would be forgiven. Within a month, Imran Khan's government was ousted.

• The Bangladesh Context: Donald Lu visited Dhaka in May 2024. Within two and a half months, the Sheikh Hasina government fell. Later, former US President Donald Trump commented that around $29 million was spent on Bangladesh’s changing political landscape.

• Historical Basis: This is not merely a conspiracy theory. The United States later officially admitted the CIA’s direct role in the 1953 overthrow of Iran’s government. Additionally, there is documented proof of US funding behind Serbia's student movement in 2000.

3. Current Global Scenario and India’s Position Similar patterns of this model are currently visible in various countries worldwide: • Spain: Faced with intense protests over a housing crisis, the government was forced to call early elections. • France: School students have taken to the streets, resulting in over 6,000 arrests. • India: Demands for the resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner, concerns over EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines), and calls for the Chief Justice of India's resignation are circulating across various Instagram pages and social media channels.

Analysis It appears that Step 3 (Eroding Trust in the System) is currently being executed in India. Although these disputes are legally resolvable in court, there are concerns that such planned social unrest could turn violent in the coming weeks or months.

While public anger or protest is a natural occurrence in a democratic nation, when a specific 6-step pattern recurs repeatedly across the world, it becomes crucial to analyze whether it is a genuine movement or an international geopolitical "Regime Change Blueprint."

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla