Recently, the ‘Makkah Pact’ has become one of the most widely discussed topics in global politics and geopolitics. Saudi Arabia—the influential economic and religious hub of the Middle East; Türkiye—a military powerhouse boasting the second-largest army in NATO; and Pakistan—the sole nuclear-armed nation in the Muslim world—have jointly signed a mutual security and defense agreement. Intense discussions are now underway regarding whether Bangladesh will join this tri-nation military alliance formed across the seven seas and thirteen rivers. While the Bangladeshi government views the development positively, diplomatic and military experts are raising serious questions. Why is joining this alliance necessary for Bangladesh when it faces no visible regional threats like the founding member states? Is Bangladesh inviting new risks to its economic and strategic security by capitalizing on mere religious sentiment or anti-India rhetoric?

The ‘Makkah Pact’ or ‘Muslim NATO’: Overview and Functionality

The defense treaty was signed in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, after a year of negotiations, in the presence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the President of Türkiye, and the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Many refer to this bloc as a ‘Muslim NATO’ because its core principle dictates that an armed attack against any one of the three member states will be considered an attack against all. This directly echoes the mutual defense policy of NATO’s famous Article 5.

However, international analysts believe that it is not fully structured like NATO:

• Lack of Integrated Command: Unlike NATO, it currently lacks an integrated military command or a clear operational architecture. • Ambiguity in Obligations: No legal obligations specify the exact number of troops, fighter jets, or aid a member state must deploy if another is attacked. • Symbolic Value: Consequently, many analysts view it more as a strong "symbolic declaration" rather than a fully integrated military alliance.

Why Is Bangladesh Being Mentioned? Although no official roadmap outlining Bangladesh's potential entry has been unveiled, a Reuters report suggests that Saudi Arabia has extended an invitation to Bangladesh to join the pact. The Bangladeshi government has also indicated that it views the prospect favorably. Recently in Parliament, the Foreign Minister stated that the government views the Makkah Pact in a positive light.

Proponents in Bangladesh who favor joining the alliance present three key arguments:

1. Defense Modernization: Advanced Turkish drones, missile technology, and sensors, combined with military training from Pakistan, could enrich Bangladesh’s defense capabilities. 2. Economic and Diplomatic Alliances: Saudi Arabia is one of Bangladesh’s primary labor markets and economic partners. Responding positively to their proposal could strengthen strategic ties. 3. Deterrence Capability: A segment vocal in its opposition to India believes that joining would create new, powerful allies to balance regional power and navigate geopolitical tensions.

Tri-Nation Crises and Economic Risks for Bangladesh

According to international relations experts, enhancing defense cooperation is fundamentally different from committing to a Collective Defense Clause. Bangladesh can independently enter into bilateral security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, or Pakistan. However, signing an automatic mutual defense treaty exposes Bangladesh to three major risks:

1. Entanglement in Unnecessary Enmities

All three member nations have distinct security anxieties and existing adversaries. Saudi Arabia fears Iran and regional rivals; Türkiye faces regional conflicts; and Pakistan shares a historical conflict with India. In contrast, Bangladesh has no geographic or fundamental security disputes with Iran or any other Middle Eastern nation.

2. Economic and Labor Market Crises

If a conflict erupts between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the future, treaty obligations could force Bangladesh to side with Saudi Arabia. This could trigger a severe economic crisis for Bangladesh: • Remittance inflows from the Middle East could be severely disrupted, putting expatriate workers at risk. • Crude oil and energy supplies could face extreme uncertainty.

South Asian Geopolitics and India's Reaction

The second major risk for Bangladesh lies within regional geopolitics. With Pakistan being a core member of this alliance, India is understandably keeping a close watch. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have hinted that they are closely monitoring these security developments in West Asia.

• Practical Interdependence and Neighboring Relations: Bangladesh is surrounded by India on nearly three sides. The two countries share deep mutual interdependencies in water resources, electricity, trade, transit, and border management. • Threat of a Proxy War: If Bangladesh provides military or policy support to Pakistan during a potential Indo-Pakistani conflict, a devastating Proxy War could ignite across South Asia. If global superpowers such as Israel, the United States, or Russia become involved, Bangladesh’s strategic posture and security in the Bay of Bengal region would be severely threatened.

U.S. Strategy and the Historical ‘CENTO’ Trap

The third and most dangerous concern surrounds U.S. geopolitical strategy. According to renowned international analysts such as Professor Joseph Massad of Columbia University, the Makkah Pact is essentially a modern iteration of the U.S.-sponsored Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) or the Baghdad Pact of 1955. • Complementing the Abraham Accords: This alliance may primarily serve as a strategy to safeguard U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East while countering their adversaries. Given that Türkiye and Pakistan maintain informal or strategic links with Israel, this alliance could ultimately align with U.S. policy objectives. • Pressure regarding ACSA and GSOMIA: Washington has long pressured Bangladesh to sign two key military agreements: the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Joining the Makkah Pact could ultimately push Bangladesh into a strategic trap set by the United States.

Core Thought: Let Policy Be Driven by Necessity, Not Emotion History bears witness that during the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War, although Bengali soldiers and civilians shed their blood, the general populace of the then East Pakistan suffered the most. Bangladesh lacks the military capacity or naval fleet to project power in the Middle East or globally. Furthermore, the role of generating revenue by deploying troops abroad is already dominated by Pakistan.

National defense cannot be dictated by religious sentiment or transient political considerations. Before entering any military bloc, Bangladesh must critically weigh what it stands to gain against the fine-print obligations it agrees to accept. Taking an emotionally driven decision to join a military alliance where the rhetoric far outweighs the practical benefit could leave Bangladesh exposed to extreme regional and international risks.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla