US Political Equation

Presidency Remains Intact: Even though his party lost the midterm elections, Donald Trump remains the President of the United States. According to the law, removing him through impeachment requires the support of 67 senators, whereas the Democrats hold 54 seats. Consequently, legally removing him from the presidency is not feasible. Constraint of Power and Tied Hands: With Democrats gaining a majority in both chambers of Parliament (Congress), it will be difficult for Trump to unilaterally pass bills or make executive decisions as he pleases. In particular, he will face strong opposition regarding blocking budgets and appointing his preferred candidates to the judiciary and major administrative positions. Furthermore, Democrats will have the opportunity to launch internal investigations against his administration. 2. Will the Iran War Stop? Change in the Trajectory of the War: Despite some curtailment of Trump’s aggressive decisions due to changes in the domestic political balance of power in the US, there is no likelihood of the Iran war stopping overnight. The Israel Factor: The Israeli lobby and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu face the imperative of political survival. By maintaining a war footing within the country, Netanyahu may seek to retain his position as Prime Minister. Consequently, intense pressure on the US to continue military operations against Iran will persist. The Democrats' Stance: History shows that America has engaged in various military conflicts even during the tenures of Democratic presidents. Therefore, the rise of the Democrats does not equate to the establishment of global peace; rather, their strategic approach may simply differ. 3. Impact on India The political changes in the US are likely to have a positive impact on India's economy and geopolitics across three main areas: • Reduction in Tariff Threats: The apprehension that Indian exports would suffer due to Donald Trump's sudden and stringent tariff policies will be significantly mitigated in the face of inflation and public backlash within the US domestic market. • Strategic Balance: Some restraint will be brought upon Trump's overly aggressive attitude and pro-Pakistan appeasement diplomacy. Commercial and diplomatic understandings between India and the US could become more robust. • Visa Policies and Professional Security: H-1B visa policies and the harsh, aggressive measures directed against Indian immigrants may become somewhat more flexible in the US due to opposition from local companies and the middle class.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla