Just 17 days before the crucial U.S. midterm elections, a political earthquake has shaken the nation’s political landscape. Rather than coming from political opponents or neutral organizations, the latest opinion poll conducted by 'RMG Research'—a well-known conservative polling firm—reveals a record-breaking slump in current President Donald Trump’s popularity. The rate of strong distrust and dissatisfaction among the American public regarding his overall policies and performance as president has reached alarming levels compared to any previous period.

The Polling Overview: Trump’s Standing in Numbers Conducted online by Scott Rasmussen between October 5 and October 13 among 2,000 registered voters for Neapolitan News Service, the poll uncovers several striking figures: Decision Desk HQ

• Record Low Strong Approval: The proportion of voters expressing strong approval for Trump has dropped to just 19%, marking the lowest point of his political career on this index. • Overall Job Performance: Only 41% of respondents approve of his job performance as president, whereas 58% express clear disapproval and lack of confidence. data.ddhq.io • Net Approval Rating: Based on the margin between supporters and opponents, his net approval rating currently stands at minus 17 (-17) points. data.ddhq.io • Strong Disapproval: A staggering 46% of voters express strong disapproval of the president's policies. data.ddhq.io • Margin of Error: The sampling margin of error for this survey was ±2.2 percentage points. data.ddhq.io+ 1 Indications of Democratic Dominance in Congress and 'VoteHub' Forecasts As Election Day draws closer, holding onto control of Capitol Hill is proving increasingly difficult for Republicans. According to the October 15 forecast by the election analytical portal VoteHub: Chamber Party Probability of Winning Control House of Representatives Democrats 84% Senate Democrats 59%

Predictive markets also strongly favor a unified Democratic control across both chambers. On leading financial betting platform Polymarket, the odds of a Democratic victory stand at 63%, while on Kalshi, it trades at 62%. While prediction markets do not directly measure final votes, they reflect the collective confidence of investors and political analysts. Kalshi News

Trump’s Campaign Strategy and the Republican Dilemma Despite falling popularity and negative forecasts, Trump has been taking strategic gambles to rally his supporters. In recent campaign rallies, he has repeatedly appealed to voters: "Even if my name is not directly on the ballot paper, assume that I am contesting this election myself. Voting for Republican candidates means voting for my agenda." In reality, however, this has placed pro-Trump candidates in a double bind. On one hand, they must rely on Trump's name to mobilize the MAGA base; on the other hand, intense public dissatisfaction among general and swing voters puts candidates at risk of losing mainstream votes.

White House Response and Trump Camp’s Claims

However, the Trump administration remains unfazed by these polls and potential election forecasts, dismissing all negative sentiment and predictions outright. In an official statement to Newsweek, White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated: "No poll can hide the fact that President Donald Trump has built one of the strongest and most unified platforms in American political history through his 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement. The President knows very well how to stay connected with his people. For Republicans, he remains an unrivaled leader, the best messenger, and an unparalleled source of inspiration. He is fully committed to maintaining the party's majority in Congress."

Conclusion: The Political Equation in the Hours Ahead

This historical decline in Trump's approval ratings—revealed by a conservative polling firm—has reshaped political calculations in American politics. Whether this public sentiment will fully manifest at the ballot box in 17 days, or whether Trump's personal charisma will once again defy all predictions to save the Republicans, remains to be seen.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton,Journalist, Political Analyst, and Chief Editor, The Source News Bangla